USDA sees higher beet sugar production
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Aug. 12 Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, raised its U.S. sugar supply forecast for 2021-22 and 2022- 23, resulting in higher ending inventories and inventory-to-use ratios for both years.
The USDA forecast ending stocks for 2021-22 (current year) at 1,828,000 tons, up 46,000 tons from its July forecast, pushing the ending stocks-to-use ratio up from 14, 3% to 14.3%. The increase in supply is the result of a 47,000 tonne increase in high level imports, forecast at a record 325,000 tonnes. Beet sugar production was reduced by 1,000 tonnes, to 5,155,000 tonnes, with total supply forecast at 14,568,000 tonnes, up 45,769 tonnes from July and 496,000 tonnes from 2020 -21. Expected deliveries in 2021-22 remained unchanged from July, including food at 12,600,000 tonnes, with imports from Mexico and TRQ imports also unchanged.
For 2022-23, which begins Oct. 1, the USDA forecast beet sugar production at 5,138,000 tons, up 203,993 tons from July based on higher projected sugar beet yields. . Cane sugar production remained unchanged at 4,013,000 tonnes. There was no change in imports from 2022-23. Total supply was forecast at 14,479,000 tonnes, up 249,762 tonnes from July, representing a 45,769 tonne increase in opening stocks and an increase in beet sugar production.
There was no change from July in the sugar usage forecast for 2022-23, including food deliveries at 12,525,000 tonnes.
Closing stocks in 2022-23 were forecast at 1,814,227 tonnes, up 249,762 tonnes from July, with a ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.32%, compared to 12.35% in July.
Mexico’s sugar production in 2021-22 was estimated at 6,185,050 tonnes, actual weight, up 5,237 tonnes from the July estimate based on CONADESUCA’s end-of-season estimates. Exports were estimated at 1,794,000 tonnes, up 5,237 tonnes, leading to ending stocks of 947,000 tonnes, unchanged from July. There was no change from July in supply or usage projections for 2022-23, with ending stocks also forecast at 947,000 tonnes.