USDA lifts sugar deferral by 16% starting in April

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its May 12 report on global agricultural supply and demand estimates, lowered its forecast for U.S. sugar production in 2021 from April- 22 and increased shipments, but both were more than offset by sharply rising imports, driving the inventory-to-use ratio to 14.4% from 12.5% ​​in April and 13.8% in 2020-21.

The USDA projects total domestic sugar production for 2021-22 at 9,229,000 tons, down 80,000 tons from its April forecast, with beet sugar at 5,254,000 tons, down 80 000 tonnes, or 1.6%, and cane sugar at 3,976,000 tonnes, up 5,000 tonnes. Most of the decrease in beet sugar supply was attributed to a reduction of 78,461 tonnes from April in the supply of the early crop of the 2022 beet crop “due to a very slow pace of planting this year,” the USDA said.

Imports were forecast at 3,469,000 tonnes, up 411,000 tonnes from April due to an increase of 159,625 tonnes in TRQ imports, forecast at 1,727,000 tonnes, an increase of 50,000 tonnes of imports from other programs, forecast at 300,000 tonnes, an increase of 170,000 tonnes increase in imports from Mexico, forecast at 1,220,000 tonnes, and an increase of 31,833 tonnes in high-level imports, forecast at 221,000 tonnes. The TRQ increase is the result of the recent reallocation of the TRQ shortfall, which is now estimated at 70,548 tons, the USDA said. The increase for Mexico was the result of the recent increase in Mexico’s “other sugars” export limit.

Total sugar supply for 2021-22 was forecast at 14,403,000 tonnes, up 331,000 tonnes from April.

Deliveries in 2021-22 were forecast at 12,555,000 tonnes, up 85,000 tonnes from April due to a similar increase in food deliveries, forecast at 12,450,000 tonnes, “at a very fast pace. supported for the first six months of the financial year, in particular by beets”. processors and direct importers of refined sugar,” the USDA said.

Closing stocks in 2021-22 were forecast at 1,813,000 tonnes, up 246,000 tonnes, or 16%, from 1,567,000 tonnes in April and up 108,000 tonnes, or 6%, from to 1,705,000 tonnes in 2020-21.

No changes were made to the estimates for 2020-2021.

The USDA also made its first forecast for the 2022-23 marketing year for sugar. Total sugar production was forecast at 9,040,000 tonnes, down 189,000 tonnes from 2021-22, including beet sugar at 5,000,000 tonnes, down 254,000 tonnes, and cane sugar to 4,040,000 tons, up 64,000 tons.

Imports in 2022-23 were projected at 3,003,000 tonnes, down 466,000 tonnes from 2021-22, but will be raised later as the initial TRQ level of 1,379,000 tonnes is set at EU minimums. World Trade Organization and Free Trade Agreements, with a projected TRQ deficit of 99,208 tonnes. Imports from Mexico were forecast at 1,323,000 tonnes, up 103,000 tonnes from the current year.

Deliveries for 2022-23 were the same as for 2021-22, including food deliveries at 12,450,000 tonnes.

The initial projection for 2022-23 ending stocks was 1,266,000 tonnes, down 547,000 tonnes from 2021-22, but will be raised when full TRQ imports are announced at a later date. The ending inventory-to-use ratio was projected at 10.1%.

Rachel J. Bradford