Sugar Bowl Expert Predictions, Odds, Betting Trends for Baylor vs Ole Miss – The Athletic

After Baylor lost to TCU in the first week of November, his chances of winning the Big 12 Championship Game didn’t look great. But then the Bears knocked out Oklahoma in a three-game winning streak to close the regular season and got some help from Oklahoma State last weekend to pass the Sooners. for second place in the title game. Baylor returned the favor by forcing four turnovers and coming up with a massive goal line to beat the Cowboys and win the Big 12. Not too bad for Dave Aranda’s side just one year out of a 2-7 campaign. The Bears worked their way into an 11-2 season behind a top-20 defense and a top-20 game. Now for one final test – an Ole Miss offense that is among the most explosive in the country.

Sometimes it pays off to be the third-best team in a conference, which is exactly what Ole Miss was in 2021. The Rebels went 10-2 for a second-place finish in SEC West, but find themselves in their first New Years game under Lane Kiffin after Alabama and Georgia both reach PSC. Make no mistake, they’re a good attacking football team. Ole Miss ranks fifth in yards per game at 506.7 and has nearly 36 points per game. It starts and ends with Matt Corral, totaling 3,936 total yards and 31 total touchdowns heading into his last college game. Expect a heavy dose of Corral in this one, especially as the Rebels rank 102nd in all-out defense.

The gap is tight in this one with Ole Miss a little favorite. The total is only 51.5, which is the lowest for an Ole Miss game since 2019. The Sugar Bowl will be on ESPN with kicks off at 8:45 p.m. ET on New Years Day.

Odds, Over / Under, Moneyline

Team Propagated Total Moneyline

+100

-1

55.5

-120

Odds updated at 2 p.m. ET on December 29. Click here for live odds.

Betting trends

  • Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS in her last 7 games.
  • The Over is 0-7 in the last 7 Ole Miss games
  • Baylor are 4-1 as an underdog in their last 5 games
  • Baylor are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games
  • The Over is 0-5-1 in Baylor’s last 6 games

Click here to learn more about The Athletic’s FREE Betting Contest with BetPrep.

Scenarios from Baylor-Ole Miss

The Rebound Bowl: How Baylor and Ole Miss rallied from the valley to climb the mountain

Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin announce new contract after season 10-2

Khan: Yes, Dave Aranda smiles after unlikely Baylor turnaround took Bears to the Big 12 title

Choice of personnel (directly)

Take

Matt Fortuna

Doug haller

Josh kendall

Jason kersey

Bill Landis

Manny Navarro

Joe rexrode

Dan Santaromita

Daniel shirley

Audrey snyder

Jason starrett

Chris Vannini

(Photo by Matt Corral: Chris McDill / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; The Athletic may earn an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through the links in the article above.)

Get unlimited access to exclusive stories.

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth, ad-free coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.

START FREE TRIAL

Rachel J. Bradford