Sugar bowl 2021: Baylor vs Ole Miss – Betting lines, odds and trends
According to punters, this year’s Sugar Bowl game against No.7 Baylor and No.8 Mississippi is a virtual draw.
The Bears are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning seven of their last eight games, including a surprise 21-16 victory over Oklahoma State’s No.9 in the Big 12 Championship game as a 7-point outsiders. In that aforementioned eight-game stretch, Baylor posted an impressive 6-2 ATS score. After a deeper dive, the Bears have thrived as an underdog with a 4-1 ATS record this season.
After the impressive victory, which brought the team’s winning streak to four, the Bears will face SEC nemesis No.9 Mississippi. The Rebels, who have won eight of their last 10 games, have picked up victories over their No. 22 ranked opponents Arkansas and No. 23 Texas A&M in the second half of the season.
Let’s dive in and break this match!
Distribution of bets on the sugar bowl
- Propagated: Baylor +1 (-110) | Mississippi -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baylor (+100) | Mississippi (-125)
- Total: 55.5– More (-110) | Less than 55.5 (-110)
- Percentages of public bets (spread): BAY 53% | MISS 47%
- Game Info: Saturday January 1, 2022 | 8:45 p.m. EST | ESPN
Editor’s Note – Dimensions are subject to change.
The line has remained stable since the No.8 Mississippi (10-2 Straight-Up -SU, 7-4-1 Against the Spread -ATS) opened as a 1.5 point favorite on the no. ° 7 Baylor (11-2 SU; 9 -4 ATS) at IF Sports betting.
Baylor has the No. 17 rushing offense (214.9 rushing yards per game) led by running back Abram Smith. The senior full-back will now face a Mississippi defense that struggled to stop the run, ranking 102nd nationally, allowing 183.0 yards per game rushing. The Bears, who have won 11 of 13 games this season, have been a solid investment for punters, posting a 9-4 ATS over the year.
On the other side of the ball, Mississippi will be looking to end the season on a high note. As of Oct. 9, the Rebels are 7-1 SU and have rewarded punters in that span with a 5-3 ATS score. Ole Miss is a road loss to Auburn away from an eight-game winning streak behind junior quarterback Matt Corral. The sensational signalman guided the Rebels to the 4th best offense in the country, averaging 506.6 total yards per game.
Baylor junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon is expected to return from a hamstring injury that forced him to miss the last two games, including the Big 12 Championship game. Freshman Blake Shapen has shone in the upset victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, completing 82.1 percent of his passes and three touchdowns. However, Shapen was ruled out of the Sugar Bowl due to a shoulder injury suffered in the victory.
The Bears will need Bohanon at full strength using both his legs and his arm. in addition to being 4th in the Big 12 for passing yards (2,160) and 5th in the conference for passing touchdowns (17), Bohanan was a weapon on the field scoring the team’s second-highest number of rushing touchdowns (9).
In the passing game, senior wide receiver Tyquan Thornton leads the club in receptions (61), receiving yards (946) and receiving touchdowns (9). In the last eight games, Thornton has collected six touchdowns. The Bears will need that kind of production against a Mississippi defense that ranks 101st in the nation, allowing a total of 428.8 yards per game for opposing offenses.
On the pitch, Baylor will feature Abram Smith (12 touchdowns on the ground) and Trestan Ebner (9 touchdowns on the ground). The solid duo are easily the key to a Bears victory over a run defense that had trouble stopping the run.
Ole Miss signalman Matt Corral threw for 3,328 yards and 20 passing touchdowns while adding 11 rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, senior winger Dontario Drummond leads the team in receptions (67), receiving yards (924) and receiving touchdowns (8). In backfield, Jerrion Ealy recorded a high 703 rushing yards while Snoop Conner leads the Rebels with 13 rushing touchdowns. The Rebels’ rushing offense, ranked ninth (224.7 rushing yards per game), will face a strong run defense from Baylor who allowed just 118.8 rushing yards per game rushing.
Both Corral and Bohanon are quarterbacks who can win the game in the air or on the ground. However, this game will be decided by the dominant rushing offense of the Bears. The respected money in Vegas backs Baylor, who proved in the Big 12 title game without Bohanon that 2021 is a special season for the Bears. Let’s build on the momentum of his comeback.
BET IF: Baylor ML (+100)
As we know, bowl games continue to be canceled, and others are threatened because of Covid-19. The most important thing that sports bettors need to do is adjust the betting philosophies involving Bowl games. For decades, respected silver sought to invest early and get the best lines. However, with the pandemic now taking its toll, bettors would have to wait until the kickoff is over to place bets.
2021 SI Paris NCAA Football: 13-12-1 ATS
2020 SI Paris NCAA Football: 31-21 ATS
2020 SI Bowl Selections: 7-2 ATS
Frankie Taddeo is a high stakes fantasy football player who created the very first DFS program ever offered at a Las Vegas bookie. Frankie is the Senior Analyst at SI Betting and provides extensive experience and resources in the sports betting arena. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest bets and fantastic ideas from Las Vegas.
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